NR ASSZ
AU Abrial,D.; Calavas,D.; Jarrige,N.; Ducrot,C.
TI Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France - a spatial analysis
QU Veterinary Research 2005 Jul-Aug; 36(4): 615-28
PT journal article
AB A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.
IN Eine mit verschiedenen mathematischen Methoden spielende epidemiologische Untersuchung von 467 nach dem französischen Tiermehl-Verfütterungsverbot vom Juli 1990 geborenen und zwischen dem 1.7.2001 und dem 31.12.2003 diagnostizierten französischen BSE-Fällen fand keine globale Bestätigung für den vermuteten Zusammenhang zwischen der Dichte der Geflügelhaltung und der räumlichen Verteilung der BSE-Fälle. Dagegen nahm die Zahl der BSE-Fälle statistisch signifikant mit der Dichte der Schweinehaltung um 2,4% pro 10.000 Schweinen zu. Leider erwähnen die Autoren zumindest im Abstract nicht, auf welche Fläche und vielleicht auch welchen Zeitraum sich diese Angabe bezieht. Anscheinend stieg das BSE-Risiko besonders in Gegenden, wo es viele Schweinen oder zumindest viele Schweine pro Rind gab. In einigen Gegenden sehen die Autoren auch eine Erhöhung des BSE-Risikos durch verstärkte Geflügelhaltung oder durch den kombinierten Einfluss von Schweine- und Geflügelhaltung.
MH Animal Feed/*standards; Animals; Bayes Theorem; Cattle; Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform/*epidemiology; France/epidemiology; Markov Chains; Monte Carlo Method; Population Density; *Poultry; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Risk; *Swine
AD Unite d'Epidemiologie Animale, INRA Theix, 63122 Saint-Genes-Champanelle, France. dabrial@clermont.inra.fr
SP englisch
PO Frankreich