NR ARGN
AU de Koeijer,A.; Heesterbeek,H.; Schreuder,B.E.C.; Oberthur,R.; Wilesmith,J.W.; van Roermund,H.; de Jong,M.C.M.
TI Quantifying BSE control by calculating the basic reproduction ratio R0 for the infection among cattle
QU Journal of Mathematical Biology 2004 Jan; 48(1): 1-22
PT journal article
AB The safety of using meat and bone meal (MBM) in mammal feed was studied in view of BSE, by quantifying the risk of BSE transmission through different infection routes. This risk is embodied in the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of the infection, i.e. the average number of new infections induced by one initial infection. Only when R(0) is below 1, will the disease die out with certainty and the population will become free from BSE. Unfortunately this is a slow process due to the slow progression of the disease. We calculate R(0) explicitly from basic ingredients taking several different transmission routes into account. Several of the basic ingredients are functions of age or of infection-age. We also calculate the exponential growth rate r in terms of the same basic ingredients. Next we quantify the ingredients from available data and compute the effects on R(0) of various scenario's for controlling BSE, with examples for the UK and the Netherlands.
MH Age Factors; Algorithms; Animal Feed/adverse effects; Animals; Cattle; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control/veterinary; Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform/epidemiology/prevention &; control/*transmission; Great Britain/epidemiology; Infection Control/*methods/standards/statistics & numerical data; Linear Models; Meat/adverse effects; Minerals/adverse effects; *Models, Biological; Netherlands/epidemiology; Prions/pathogenicity; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Risk Factors; Time Factors
AD Aline de Koeijer, Hans Heesterbeek, Bram Schreuder, Radulf Oberthür, John Wilesmith, Herman van Roermund, Mart de Jong, Institute for Animal Science and Health, ID-Lelystad, P.O. Box 65, 6200, AB Lelystad, The Netherlands. a.a.dekoeijer@id.dlo.nl
SP englisch
PO Deutschland