NR APID
AU Hopp,P.; Webb,C.R.; Jarp,J.
TI Monte Carlo simulation of surveillance strategies for scrapie in Norwegian sheep
QU Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2003 Oct 15; 61(2): 103-25
PT journal article
AB
Our aim was to compare the efficiency of different surveillance strategies for detecting scrapie-infected sheep flocks in the Norwegian population using simulation modelling.The dynamic Monte Carlo simulation model has the flock as the unit. The input parameters include properties of the sheep population (number of flocks, flock size, age distribution, reasons for culling, breeds, prion protein-allele distribution); properties of scrapie (genotype-dependent infection rate and incubation periods, and age- and genotype-dependent prevalence of scrapie); properties of the surveillance strategy (selection of sheep for examination, period in which infected sheep are detectable, and properties of the diagnostic tests). For simplification, the prion protein-alleles were grouped into three allele groups: VRQ, ARR, and ARQ' (ARQ' represents ARQ, ARH and AHQ).Through either abattoir surveillance or surveillance of fallen stock,
MH Abattoirs/statistics & numerical data; Animals; Computer Simulation; Diagnostic Tests, Routine/standards/veterinary; Genotype; *Models, Statistical; Monte Carlo Method; Norway/epidemiology; Population Surveillance/*methods; PrPsc Proteins/genetics; Prevalence; Scrapie/diagnosis/*epidemiology/etiology/*prevention & control; Seasons; Sensitivity and Specificity; Sheep; Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
AD Section of Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, PO Box 8156 Dep, NO-0033 Oslo, Norway. petter.hopp@vetinst.no
SP englisch
PO Niederlande