NR ALWX
AU Valleron,A.J.
TI [The roles for modeling in epidemiology]
OT Les roles de la modelisation en epidemiologie
QU Comptes Rendus de l'Academie des Sciences. Serie III, Sciences de la Vie 2000 May; 323(5): 429-33
PT historical article; journal article
AB Mathematical modelling in epidemiology was pioneered by D. Bernoulli in 1760 in his work demonstrating the effectiveness of the technique of variolation against smallpox. Mathematical epidemiology concerns presently infectious diseases (such as HIV infection, hepatitis C, Prion diseases, influenza, etc.) as well as non-infectious diseases (e.g. cancer). The roles of modelling in epidemiology are: 1) description of complex data in order to facilitate the dissemination of results; 2) demonstration of general laws governing the dynamics of epidemics; 3) estimation of the values of parameters that cannot be directly measured; 4) prediction of future disease burdens; 5) selection of optimal experimental designs.
MH Adult; English Abstract; Epidemiology/*history; HIV Infections/epidemiology; History of Medicine, 18th Cent.; History of Medicine, 20th Cent.; Human; *Models, Theoretical; Research Design; Smallpox/epidemiology/prevention & control
AD Unite Inserm U 444, universite Pierre-et-Marie-Curie, CHU Saint-Antoine, Paris, France. valleron@b3e.jussieu.fr
SP französisch
PO Frankreich